SPDN: An Inexpensive Way To Profit When The S&P 500 Falls

Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

The Best Internet Marketing Training Program Online

Are you wondering what the best internet marketing training program online is? Well I have to say, being an internet marketing consultant, I’ve came across a wide variety of programs out there. I’ve being practicing online marketing since 2004, so I’ve seen the old school gurus, and the new school heroes of today’s current time. And I can honestly say, the program quality is VASTLY different.The old school internet marketing training programs aren’t as software and technologically driven as today’s programs are. Back in the day, you would learn hard hitting strategies that really improved your website sales immediately. I want to share a personal story about a free internet marketing program I came across while I was in college – and it changed my life completely.So I was in college trying my best to make money in between classes, and I was doing the direct linking method of marketing. Back then you had traditional pay per click advertising search engines such as Overture, MSN Adcenter, and Google AdWords. Those were the top 3 – before Yahoo and MSN (currently Bing) merged. So I was in college linking directly to my ugly sales letter page, and getting no results. Well actually, the only results I was getting was bad results.I read every single article you could think of, and I came across a guy named Terry Dean. I read his article, was intrigued, and saw a link for a free book he had. The book was called something like, “10 Quick And Easy Ways To Boost Your Website Sales In A Week” (or something like that). I read it, and it changed my entire marketing completely.1 week after implementing his ideas and applying changes to my website, I got my first 2 sales ever. I fell out of my chair. I couldn’t believe it. I said this “internet thing” is real and I wanted more. Now fast forward to this day of age and the internet marketing training that I see is ridiculous. Everybody has a new secret or a new technique. Everybody’s trying to get rich overnight WITHOUT a website.There are a lot of internet marketing training programs these days that teach people to get started with affiliate marketing and just “share” their link on Facebook, forums, and search engines. This doesn’t work, and the old school marketers look at these promotional tactics and authors as if they are scammers. Why do I use the word “scammer”? Well it’s simple.Everywhere you go, everyone has a “new” way of doing something. Everything has to be faster, better, and more supreme than the proven way of making money. This is why so many people fail, because they think they can just put up a website, put their link into an autoblaster, and get rich overnight. It doesn’t work like that. Even worst is when people join an affiliate network, sign up to promote a particular product, and then just blast their affiliate link all over the place.And yes, there are high priced internet marketing training programs that advise this kind of marketing. It’s frightening isn’t it? It makes new age marketers like myself look bad and frowned upon, because my methods work, and it doesn’t take a genius to implement them and see results. Whenever you come across an internet marketing training program, you have to keep an eye out for a few things.You should look to see if the person has something free to offer you – to sample. This way you can “test drive” their expertise, and take a peek to see what they have to say. Then you should be able to take what you’ve learned from their free sample, and be able to apply it to your business. This is crucial, because just because you pay for an internet marketing program, doesn’t mean you’re going to learn the important stuff.There’s a well-known marketer online (who’s name I won’t disclose) who had an online business program. He had tons of testimonials from people who used his strategies and were making thousands of dollars per month. Some of them were making thousands of dollars per day. Actually… some of them were making over $10,000 per day – and they attributed their success to this guy’s course.So I bought the course for $39 (out of intrigue), and what did I find? I found a glorified sales pitch to purchase his $995 “advanced course” about making money on the internet. The material in the course that I bought only talked about why most people aren’t making money online, and how people promote products that they want to promote – INSTEAD of selling what people are looking for.Who doesn’t know that? What business owner would sell something that nobody desires? This is simple market research. So I bought the $39 course and was highly disappointed, and quite mad because of the testimonials that I saw that were associated with this course. So these are some of the games and gimmicks some of the new age “gurus” like to play in order to boost their bank account, and take advantage of people.So this was certainly not the best internet marketing training program I’ve seen. The old age internet marketer’s actually delivered when it came to value, and that is why they are legendary and are in the “hall of fame” of marketing. Nowadays you can go to YouTube and find over 100 gurus who have an internet marketing “success system” that is unique from everybody else’s. If you take a look at the ads, they all sound the same. And when you buy the products, most of them is just rehashed information.There are a lot internet marketing training programs on the internet, and you can’t trust just anybody. If you’re going to follow someone, make sure they have a real website – and not just an ugly affiliate link. Make sure they have an email newsletter that you can subscribe to and learn from. Make sure they have training articles and free materials that you can learn from. Make sure you can reach them by email and via social media. And make sure they are current and on top of the latest trends in the internet marketing industry.Be careful who you buy from, because you might end up disappointed like I was.

S&P 500 Rallies As U.S. Dollar Pulls Back Towards Weekly Lows

Key Insights
The strong pullback in the U.S. dollar provided significant support to stocks.
Treasury yields have pulled back after touching new highs, which served as an additional positive catalyst for S&P 500.
A move above 3730 will push S&P 500 towards the resistance level at 3760.
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Pfizer Rallies After Announcing A Huge Price Hike For Its COVID-19 Vaccines
S&P 500 is currently trying to settle above 3730 as traders’ appetite for risk is growing. The U.S. dollar has recently gained strong downside momentum as the BoJ intervened to stop the rally in USD/JPY. Weaker U.S. dollar is bullish for stocks as it increases profits of multinational companies and makes U.S. equities cheaper for foreign investors.

The leading oil services company Schlumberger is up by 9% after beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Schlumberger’s peers Baker Hughes and Halliburton have also enjoyed strong support today.

Vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna gained strong upside momentum after Pfizer announced that it will raise the price of its coronavirus vaccine to $110 – $130 per shot.

Biggest losers today include Verizon and Twitter. Verizon is down by 5% despite beating analyst estimates on both earnings and revenue. Subscriber numbers missed estimates, and traders pushed the stock to multi-year lows.

Twitter stock moved towards the $50 level as the U.S. may conduct a security review of Musk’s purchase of the company.

From a big picture point of view, today’s rebound is broad, and most market segments are moving higher. Treasury yields have started to move lower after testing new highs, providing additional support to S&P 500. It looks that some traders are ready to bet that Fed will be less hawkish than previously expected.

S&P 500 Tests Resistance At 3730

S&P 500 has recently managed to get above the 20 EMA and is trying to settle above the resistance at 3730. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If S&P 500 manages to settle above 3730, it will head towards the next resistance level at 3760. A successful test of this level will push S&P 500 towards the next resistance at October highs at 3805. The 50 EMA is located in the nearby, so S&P 500 will likely face strong resistance above the 3800 level.

On the support side, the previous resistance at 3700 will likely serve as the first support level for S&P 500. In case S&P 500 declines below this level, it will move towards the next support level at 3675. A move below 3675 will push S&P 500 towards the support at 3640.